Results appear here as you type.
For information and entertainment only — not betting, financial or legal advice. Results are estimates based on your inputs.
How the Expected Value (EV) Calculator works
Expected value is the average result per bet if you could repeat it many times. Enter your stake, the odds and the probability you think the outcome has. A positive EV means your estimate is higher than the odds imply; a negative EV means the price is too short for your estimate.
Formula
- EV = (probability × profit if win) − (1 − probability) × stake
- Profit if win = stake × (decimal odds − 1)
- Edge = your probability − implied probability
Worked example
Stake 10 at 2.20 with a 50% estimate: EV = 0.5 × 12 − 0.5 × 10 = +1.00 per bet (a +10% edge on stake).
Frequently asked questions
Does a positive EV guarantee profit?
No. EV is a long-run average. A single bet or a short run can lose even when the estimate is right, and an over-optimistic probability turns a “positive” bet into a negative one.
Play responsibly
Calculators describe maths, not outcomes. Gambling is for adults aged 18+ and can be addictive — set limits and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.